It feels a bit geeky to write this (it might be the LSE spirit influencing me), but I find this video-clip below as interesting as anything available on YouTube. This clip, from the COP13 Conference on Bali in 2007, shows two things. 1: The UNFCCC executive secretary Yvo de Boer’s breakdown shows how exhausting it can be to be in the middle of such complex negotiations as the ones taking place in Copenhagen right now, and 2: One single, well-timed comment from one single delegation, no matter how small, can sometimes make a big difference in the overall game of power.
A short introduction: In my blog yesterday I mentioned the high-profile Papua New Guinea envoy Kevin Conrad, who has already left his mark on COP15 in Copenhagen. And he certainly did so on Bali two years ago:
But, as often in UN negotiations, things aren’t just as simple as they seem to be. Conrad has later admitted that both the US and the EU were set up. But while the EU saw were it was all heading and accepted the text as it was, the US didn’t. Not until after the embarrassment. And, of course, Papua New Guinea was backed by e.g. China and India in their demand. But at least this somewhat famous episode shows that the US’s structural leadership isn’t the only thing that matters in these negotiations.
The general divide in the negotiations runs between developed and developing countries, and this divide has become very clear since a draft from the Danish hosts were leaked to The Guardian on Tuesday. The proposed agreement, which can be read in full here, caused outrage among the G77 nations, who accused the host-nation of favouring the interest of the richer parts of the world.
‘Your prime minister have chosen to protect the rich countries. This is not ok. One should listen to every country. That’s what democracy is about’, said the G77 chairman Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping to the Danish newspaper Politiken. According to the leaked draft the developing countries should commit themselves to more emission reductions, and at the same time the controversial World Bank should replace the UN in controlling the money-flows from rich to poor countries.
The leaked draft seems more than anything to be an attempt at finding a compromise between the two biggest rich players, the EU and the US – a US that never signed the Kyoto protocol but remains necessary to get on board because of its 5,994 million tons of CO2-emissions a year. But getting the US on board won’t help much in the long-term if the hosts lose big developing countries like India and China in the process.
That being said, the leaked draft is probably just one of several drafts made by the Danes for this conference. If they take their role as hosts seriously, they should put several possible solutions on the table (UPDATE: The Norwegian newspaper Dagbladet has today gotten access to another draft – and this draft suggests that industrialized countries should cut as much as 90 percent in its emissions within 2050, compared to 1990-level. The US is, not surprisingly, reported to be critical). But still, the G77 is of course in their full right to criticize the fact that they were not consulted in the work with the first particular draft.
Before I end for now, I just want to draw your attention to this link. Please study this Guardian carbon atlas thorough. This is the best map I’ve seen of this kind. Understanding this map is to understand much of the challenges that the negotiators face in Copenhagen. The short version of it is that the developed US and developing China is emitting quite a similar amount of CO2. However, the average American is emitting 19,8 tons while the average Chinese is emitting 4,6 tons of CO2 a year. And this is the overall pattern when looking at developing and developed countries.
And considering that the developed countries are to blame for the climate change in the first place – how much should the developing countries be asked to offer in terms of cutting down on emissions? Furthermore, how much and what should the rich world offer to the poorer countries as compensation?
Find a well-balanced solution to this and I know at least a couple of people in Copenhagen who would like to speak with you.
Best wishes,
Trym
PS: Tuesday my Russian-American fellow blogger Mark Sleboda wrote about his disappointment that Russia seemed to send only their 1st deputy prime minister, Igor Shuvalov, to Copenhagen. But now Kremlin has announced that president Dmitry Medvedev will join the 110 other heads of states during the final days of the conference next week. великолепный.
